Are Derby County getting away with it?

Points won against the points their chances (xG) usually earn.

Club

Well below average Probably real

−6.0 pts

avg

League avg: −0.3
Gap: −5.7
Rank: 23rd/24
matches: 11

	Derby County
Points won	6
Points their chances usually earn	12.0
Goals scored	9
Expected goals (xG)	10.6
Finishing: goals − xG	−1.6
Goals conceded	20
Expected goals against	18.2
Keeping: conceded − xG against (minus is good)	+1.8

Getting Away With It table

League avg −0.2 pts

#	Club	Pts	xPts	G−xG	GA−xGA	+/−	Verdict
1	Manchester City	21	13.1	+3.6	−2.8	+7.9	Well above average
2	Chelsea	13	8.9	+7.7	+2.4	+4.1	Well above average
3	Arsenal	18	14.0	−1.0	−0.5	+4.0	Well above average
4	Brighton & Hove Albion	16	12.2	+8.1	−5.2	+3.8	Above average
5	Hull City	9	7.0	+1.2	−3.4	+2.0	Above average
6	Newcastle United	8	7.3	+1.9	+2.1	+0.8	Above average
7	Liverpool	12	11.3	−1.9	−0.3	+0.7	Above average
8	Everton	10	9.4	−1.4	−2.7	+0.6	Average
9	Ipswich Town	9	8.6	+0.5	+0.9	+0.4	Average
10	Crystal Palace	7	6.6	−0.4	+2.2	+0.4	Average
11	Leeds United	10	9.7	−0.7	−3.6	+0.3	Average
12	Brentford	10	9.8	+1.3	−2.2	+0.2	Average
13	Aston Villa	8	8.6	−1.4	−0.3	−0.6	Average
14	Coventry City	6	7.0	−1.1	+2.7	−1.0	Below average
15	Manchester United	7	9.9	−1.4	+0.2	−2.9	Below average
16	Tottenham Hotspur	6	9.1	−1.4	+0.6	−3.1	Below average
17	Sunderland	4	8.4	−4.5	−0.3	−4.4	Below average
18	Fulham	5	10.3	−3.9	+0.1	−5.3	Well below average
19	Bournemouth	6	11.4	−3.3	+4.8	−5.4	Well below average
20	Nottingham Forest	5	11.4	−6.5	+0.7	−6.4	Well below average

League avg −0.3 pts

#	Club	Pts	xPts	G−xG	GA−xGA	+/−	Verdict
1	Stoke City	19	10.7	+8.1	−2.5	+8.3	Well above average
2	West Bromwich Albion	20	14.0	+0.3	−3.9	+6.0	Well above average
3	Swansea City	23	17.9	−1.7	−4.3	+5.1	Well above average
4	Blackburn Rovers	15	10.3	+6.2	−3.4	+4.7	Well above average
5	Sheffield United	15	12.4	+2.9	−2.4	+2.6	Above average
6	Southampton	21	18.5	+1.3	−4.1	+2.5	Above average
7	Charlton Athletic	14	11.9	−1.2	−1.9	+2.1	Above average
8	West Ham United	22	20.7	+6.1	−0.9	+1.3	Above average
9	Birmingham City	20	18.8	+0.6	−2.6	+1.2	Average
10	Bolton Wanderers	14	13.1	−0.4	−0.7	+0.9	Average
11	Watford	11	10.2	−2.3	−1.7	+0.8	Average
12	Middlesbrough	22	21.6	+0.2	+4.7	+0.4	Average
13	Queens Park Rangers	17	17.7	−1.9	−1.1	−0.7	Average
14	Wrexham	14	15.1	+2.7	+2.9	−1.1	Average
15	Portsmouth	15	16.7	−1.0	+1.2	−1.7	Average
16	Bristol City	14	15.9	−2.8	0.0	−1.9	Average
17	Wolverhampton Wanderers	18	20.2	0.0	+5.0	−2.2	Below average
18	Millwall	15	17.9	−2.4	+2.8	−2.9	Below average
19	Lincoln City	12	15.1	−4.7	+4.0	−3.1	Below average
20	Burnley	8	12.0	+3.0	+3.5	−4.0	Below average
21	Cardiff City	11	15.8	−2.2	−2.0	−4.8	Well below average
22	Norwich City	9	14.0	+1.5	+3.8	−5.0	Well below average
23	Derby County	6	12.0	−1.6	+1.8	−6.0	Well below average
24	Preston North End	4	13.2	−4.1	+8.3	−9.2	Well below average

League avg −0.3 pts

#	Club	Pts	xPts	G−xG	GA−xGA	+/−	Verdict
1	Cambridge United	20	13.3	+4.9	−2.3	+6.7	Well above average
2	Oxford United	18	12.5	+6.3	−3.8	+5.5	Well above average
3	Bradford City	21	16.9	−2.2	−4.1	+4.1	Well above average
4	Sheffield Wednesday	18	15.6	+1.7	−4.3	+2.4	Well above average
5	Burton Albion	14	11.7	+5.5	−1.1	+2.3	Above average
6	Plymouth Argyle	19	16.8	+0.2	−0.4	+2.2	Above average
7	AFC Wimbledon	12	10.2	−1.7	+1.1	+1.8	Above average
8	Leyton Orient	14	12.7	+1.8	−4.8	+1.3	Above average
9	Stockport County	22	20.8	+1.9	−0.5	+1.2	Average
10	Bromley	8	7.1	+1.7	+5.8	+0.9	Average
11	Blackpool	11	10.2	+1.8	−4.2	+0.8	Average
12	Stevenage	15	14.6	+3.5	+0.3	+0.4	Average
13	Huddersfield Town	22	22.9	−2.2	−0.3	−0.9	Average
14	Mansfield Town	15	15.9	−0.3	+3.0	−0.9	Average
15	Leicester City	15	16.4	−0.2	+2.4	−1.4	Average
16	Wycombe Wanderers	14	16.0	+2.4	+6.9	−2.0	Average
17	Reading	18	20.1	+1.2	−0.7	−2.1	Below average
18	Luton Town	14	17.1	+2.2	+6.4	−3.1	Below average
19	MK Dons	9	12.2	−2.4	+1.1	−3.2	Below average
20	Doncaster Rovers	9	12.7	−0.9	−0.6	−3.7	Below average
21	Notts County	10	14.0	−1.9	+2.0	−4.0	Well below average
22	Barnsley	8	12.3	−4.0	+2.4	−4.3	Well below average
23	Wigan Athletic	7	11.8	−6.9	−1.8	−4.8	Well below average
24	Peterborough United	9	15.3	−6.7	+3.1	−6.3	Well below average

League avg −0.6 pts

#	Club	Pts	xPts	G−xG	GA−xGA	+/−	Verdict
1	Salford City	25	17.5	+5.3	−0.2	+7.5	Well above average
2	Cheltenham Town	18	12.1	+7.9	+1.8	+5.9	Well above average
3	Rochdale	15	9.5	+5.0	−3.7	+5.5	Well above average
4	Crewe Alexandra	21	15.5	+1.3	−4.3	+5.5	Well above average
5	Barnet	21	17.4	+4.0	+2.1	+3.6	Above average
6	Walsall	19	15.4	−0.4	−8.8	+3.6	Above average
7	Swindon Town	15	13.3	−1.9	−4.3	+1.7	Above average
8	Tranmere Rovers	15	13.7	+1.6	−3.0	+1.3	Above average
9	Gillingham	17	16.1	+3.2	−0.7	+0.9	Average
10	Exeter City	16	16.0	−5.1	−7.5	0.0	Average
11	Fleetwood Town	14	14.1	−0.3	−3.2	−0.1	Average
12	Colchester United	12	12.8	−0.6	−2.3	−0.8	Average
13	Northampton Town	10	11.2	−2.1	−4.1	−1.2	Average
14	Newport County	15	17.0	+3.1	+0.8	−2.0	Average
15	Port Vale	12	14.3	−5.9	−0.4	−2.3	Average
16	Shrewsbury Town	17	19.7	−3.4	+5.7	−2.7	Average
17	Accrington Stanley	15	17.9	+0.1	+1.0	−2.9	Below average
18	York City	17	20.9	−2.4	+1.3	−3.9	Below average
19	Bristol Rovers	15	19.2	−4.9	+5.9	−4.2	Below average
20	Oldham Athletic	11	15.9	−2.4	+3.4	−4.9	Below average
21	Rotherham United	11	16.8	−2.3	+4.0	−5.8	Well below average
22	Chesterfield	16	22.0	−2.8	+3.4	−6.0	Well below average
23	Crawley Town	5	11.5	−2.5	+1.6	−6.5	Well below average
24	Grimsby Town	14	20.6	−7.6	−1.5	−6.6	Well below average

Game by game

Running total of points won, against the points their chances usually earn. Right now: −6.0 pts.

How it works

Every match's expected goals (xG) for and against are turned into the chance of a win, draw or loss, assuming goals arrive at random at the rate xG suggests. Adding those up gives the points a side's chances would usually earn. This is the gap between that and the points actually won: above average means more points than their chances deserved. Most of the gap comes from finishing (goals scored against xG) and keeping (goals conceded against the xG of chances faced), both shown alongside. The rest is timing, such as winning 1-0 rather than 4-3. Current season only (xG is only available from 2026-27), league games only.

/ = roughly the top or bottom 15% of the league, / the next 20%, the middle. “Could be chance” means the gap is small enough to be luck. League games only.